Economic Analyses
Financial Shocks and Market Recoveries - 1970-2008 (2009)
To give context to the market meltdown of 2008, this piece reviews the causes and resolutions of the 30 major financial crises since 1970 that preceded the 2008 meltdown. (18 pages)
Credit Crisis Primer (2008)
Written at the height of the 2008 Credit Crisis, this piece provided clients perspective by reviewing the history and circumstances leading up to the Crisis. (14 pages)
Fedwatching (1986)
A published article condensed down from a seminar I gave regularly to clients in my role as an economist for a major money center bank on how to analyze the US Federal Reserve. (5 pages)
Major Market Participants (1996)
My contributed chapter to a Sheshunoff banking manual describing the workings of the US Treasury and the US Federal Reserve and how they impact on US financial markets. (41 pages)
Yield Curve Inversions: All But Inevitable? (1994)
Brief historical study of whether inversions of the US yield curve are a necessary outcome of a tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. (3 pages)
Leading Indicators of Inflation (1987)
An empirical comparison of a time series model vs. a cross-sectional model for predicting the onset of inflation in the United States. (4 pages)
Long Bond Authority (1987)
An analysis of the limit faced by the US Treasury in its ability to issue long bonds, written for our clients during the heyday of bond issuance during the late 1980's. (4 pages)
Investment Update (2000)
Sample newsletter from our investment department when I was the Chief Investment Officer explaining our market outlook and our approach to asset allocation. (4 pages)
Macro-Economic "One-Pager" Reports (1994)
A series of brief studies on macro-economic events of interest to my clients while I was a market strategist in the mid-1990s. (6 pages)
Impact of Fed Policy Shifts on the Stock Market (1994)
A brief study for our clients of how interest rate policy change announcements by the US Federal Reserve Board affect the US stock markets. (4 pages)
Investment Update (2000)
Sample newsletter from our investment department when I was the Chief Investment Officer explaining our market outlook and our approach to asset allocation. (4 pages)
An Analysis of Fed Policy Changes in 1994 (1994)
A review written for our clients in 1994 that reviewed each meeting that year of the Federal Reserve and analyzed the policy changes resulting from those meetings. (5 pages)